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Forsyningsproblemerne for NVIDIA og AMD fortsætter

Da vi tilbage i december 2020 meldte om NVIDIA: Derfor mangler der GeForce RTX 30 kort, var forventningerne, at den hele løsnede op i første kvartal af 2021. Det kunne meget vel være et andet billede vi er vidne til nu.

TSMC er fortsat en central flaskehals til GPU-produktion, da Samsung endnu ikke har fået produktionen op i gear, og det hjælper virkelig ikke, at ETH-mining har fået et fullblown comeback. Indtil Ethereium skifter til Proof of Stake (hvilket forventes at ske en gang i år), kan du forvente, at kryptomining fortsætter med at sluge en stor andel af GPU'er ud af, hvad der er tilgængeligt, og køre priserne op til det næsten ubetalelige.

Læs også: RTX 3080 Ethereum mining rig tjener $20K pr måned

AMD havde følgende at sige om manglen:

We knew about the expiration of some tariff policies, and in advance worked towards a more flexible supply chain as it relates to AMD. We are committed to keeping GPU pricing as close to our suggested retail pricing as much as possible, because it’s the only way to be fair to the users.

Normally when we have GPU launches, our own branded cards are available initially but then fade away for our partners to pick up. This time around we’re not phasing out our RX 6000 series, enabling us to sell direct to customers as low as possible. We’re encouraging partners to do the same. Not only tariffs, but the COVID environment has increased shipping and freight costs, which are hard to avoid. As we get into a more normal environment, this should improve. This also matters for our planned graphics updates through the first half of the year, as we have a lot of product coming to market.

— AMD CEO Dr. Lisa Su via et interview med AnandTech

On the plus side, AMD tells The Verge it expects to sell more of its own reference design RX 6800, 6800 XT and RX 6900 XT cards on its own website in the first quarter of 2021 at their sticker prices, which should mean $579, $649 and $999 instead of inflated ones. But AMD is only committing to make them available “to as many gamers as possible,” which may not reassure buyers who felt AMD had a paper launch to begin with.

— Sean Hollister, The Verge

Ifølge NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress oplever virksomheden begrænsninger i udbuddet, der gjorde dem ude af stand til at imødekomme efterspørgslen gennem 4. kvartal 2020. Dette inkluderer ikke kun wafere og silicon, men også substrate og komponenter. Dette resulterede i, at gamerne ikke var i stand til at købe grafikkort til overkommelige priser i 2020 og sandsynligvis gennem første kvartal 2021.

I betragtning af den globale indsats for at distribuere COVID-vaccinen starter i 2021, kan det meget vel også sætte sit præg på globale forsendelser af grafikkort og dertilhørende komponenter, hvilket vil betyde, at gamerne måske ikke ser priserne normalisere sig indtil slutningen af 2021.

"We do have supply constraints and our supply constraints do expand past what we are seeing in terms of wafers and silicon, but yes some constrains are in substrates and components," said Colette Kress, CFO of Nvidia, at Credit Suisse 24th Annual Technology Conference. "We continue to work during the quarter on our supply and we believe though that demand will probably exceed supply in Q4 for overall gaming."

"We do expect it probably to take a couple months for it to catch up to demand, but at this time, it is really difficult for us to quantify," said Kress. "So, we stay focused on trying to get our parts to the market for this very important holiday season. Each day things continue to improve. But before the end of the quarter, we will be able to provide some more information."

Personligt tror jeg vi skal frem til marts før priserne stabilisere sig. Dette skyldes, at en stor del af problemet er forsyningsbegrænsningen ved TSMC, og indtil kapaciteten udvides der, er der simpelthen for mange munde at fodre.

NVIDIA’s partnerskab med Samsung, ser heller ikke ud til at give det ønskede resultat.

 

Source & Image credit:

AMD, NVIDIA, Anandtech, The Verge, educba